MetroDenverRealty.com

If you or someone you know is thinking about buying or selling real estate any time in the next year, please call to let me know. It would be my pleasure to contact and work with your referral. My commitment to you is to treat them with the utmost care as they work towards buying and/or selling real estate. Referrals are the core of my business!

This weeks economic news:

Monday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Tuesday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010 Please E-mail us your opinion of this report

This weeks economic news:

Monday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Tuesday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Wednesday

• The Fed Beige Book report to be released at 2:00 PM ET.  It details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

Thursday

• The revised 4th quarter Productivity Index showed an upward revision to an annual rate of 6.7%. This was higher than the preliminary reading of last month and better than forecasts. That means that employees were more productive in quarter than thought, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. This is because the economy can grow easier without inflation concerns when productivity is high.
• January’s Factory Orders revealed a 1.7% increase in new orders for durable and non-durable goods. This was close to forecasts, but December’s orders were revised higher by 0.5%.
• The Labor Department reported that last week’s unemployment figure of 469,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable drop from the previous week, but nearly matched forecasts. It also has not affected today’s mortgage pricing.

Friday

• The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 9.7% last month when forecasts had called for a 0.1% increase. The number of jobs lost in the month came in at 36,000 when analysts were expecting a loss of 65,000 jobs. Both of these readings were negative for bonds and mortgage rates and positive for the stock markets since it paints less of a grim picture in the labor market as thought.
• Average hourly earnings reading that rose 0.1%. It was expected to show an increase of 0.2%, meaning income costs did not rise as much as thought. This is an indicator of wage inflation, so the lower the increase, the better for bonds.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010 Please E-mail us your opinion of this report

This weeks economic news:

Monday:

• No important economic data scheduled for release

Tuesday

• The Conference Board reported February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of 46.0 which was well below forecasts of a 55.0 reading. This means that consumers were far less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is very good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning levels of confidence usually translates into lower levels of consumer spending.

Wednesday

• January’s New Home Sales report a 11.2% drop in sales of newly constructed homes. That indicates that the housing sector is not as stable as some wanted to believe and can be good news for the bond market. However, this data covered only approximately 15% of all home sales in the U.S. Friday’s Existing Home Sales report tracks the other 85% of sales.
• Chairman Bernanke is in the process of delivering the Fed’s semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy to the House Financial Services Committee. During his prepared statement he indicated concern about the employment sector and the unemployment rate that is expected to remain high for quite some time. He also said that he expects inflation to remain under control. Both were good news for the bond market and helped move bonds into positive ground.

Thursday

• January’s Durable Goods Orders report showed a surprising 3.0% increase in new orders for big-ticket items. This was much larger than the 1.4% increase that was expected, however, an upward revision of 0.9% to December’s orders made the month-to-month change less drastic. Also, a reading within the report that tracks new orders for products not attributed to transportation related items actually fell 0.6% when it was expected to rise. This means that overall new orders rose more than expected, but when more volatile transportation related orders are excluded, new orders fell short of forecasts. We can consider these results neutral or slightly favorable to bonds.
• The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures, announcing that 496,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was much higher than expected and just a bit shy of the important benchmark of 500,000. It also means that new claims rose 12% over the past two weeks, raising concerns that the employment crisis may be worsening before it gets much better. This data usually has little impact on the markets, but the back-to-back spikes have influenced bonds and mortgage rates favorably this morning.
• Also worth noting are the second day of testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke and the 7-year Treasury Note auction. Mr. Bernanke is expected to repeat yesterday’s speech to the Senate Banking committee today, so it will likely have little influence on trading and mortgage rates unless the Q & A portion of the proceeding reveals any surprises. Yesterday’s 5-year Note auction did not go very well, so there is little expectation that today’s 7-year sale will go much better.

Friday

• The 4^th quarter GDP revision came in a little higher or stronger than last month’s previous estimate of 5.7%. Today’s release showed a 5.9% rate of growth, meaning economic activity was stronger than many had thought. This headline number is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a strengthening economy raises inflation concerns and make bonds less appealing to investors.
• The University of Michigan updated their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February announced a reading of 73.6 that was close to forecasts. It is a slight decline from the previous estimate.
• January’s Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors reported a 7.2% decline in home resales last month when a small increase was expected. This dropped sales to their lowest level since last summer, indicating that the housing sector still has some hurdles to tackle. This can be considered favorable news for bonds, but the data usually does not heavily influence trading or mortgage rates.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010 Please E-mail us your opinion of this report

Are you looking for current Real Estate Market Statistics for your city and community? Denver’s Metrolist generally provides real estate market statistics for the entire metro area. If you would like see market statistics specific for your city and community you can do so by following these two simple steps:

1. Use the map below to determine which Sub Area you live in. Denver’s Metrolist has partitioned the Denver metro area into what are called Sub Areas.
2. Find the link for your Sub Area. The links can be found below the map.

Don’t forget that you can get even more specific real estate data for your neighborhood using this Market Snapshop link or going to the MetroDenverRealty web site and clicking on Market Snapshot.

Denver Metro Area
Total MLS (All Metrolist Areas as one download )

Denver Sub Areas
Aurora North (AUN)
Aurora South  (AUS)
Brighton, Fort Lupton (BFL)
Broomfield (BRM)
Douglas County West (DCW)
Douglas Elbert Parker (DEP)
Douglas Highlands Ranch Lone Tree (DHL)
Denver Northeast (DNE)
Denver Northwest (DNW)
Denver Southeast (DSE)
Denver Southwest (DSW)
Downtown Denver (DTD)
East Suburban North (ESN)
East Suburban South (ESS)
Jefferson County Central (JFC)
Jefferson County North (JFN)
Jefferson County South (JFS)
Jefferson County West (JFW)
Jefferson County Northcentral (JNC)
Jefferson County Southcentral (JSC)
Lafayette (LAF)
North Northeast Suburban (NNE)
North Northwest Suburban (NNW)
North Suburban Central (NSC)
North Suburban East (NSE)
North Suburban West (NSW)
South Suburban Central (SSC)
South Suburban East (SSE)
Superior (SUP)

This weeks economic news:

Monday:

• The financial markets are closed today in observance of the President’s Day Holiday

Tuesday

• No important economic data scheduled for release

Wednesday

• January’s Housing Starts revealed a larger than expected increase in starts and an upward revision to December’s starts, hinting that the housing sector may be stronger than thought. Rising starts of new homes indicates more sales or stronger levels of optimism by builders.
• January’s Industrial Production data showed a 0.9% increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities that exceeded forecasts. That indicates a level of manufacturing sector strength that is considered bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. However, this data is considered only moderately important, so it has not hurt mortgage rates this morning.

Thursday

• The Labor Department reported that January’s Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 1.4% while the core data reading rose 0.3%. Both of these readings were well above forecasts, meaning inflationary pressures were stronger at the producer level of the economy than many had thought. This is certainly bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because inflation erodes the value of a bond’s future fixed interest payments, making them less appealing to investors. They are then sold at a discount, leading to higher yields and rising mortgage rates.
• The Conference Board reported that January’s Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) increased 0.3% which was below expectations. That means that the data is predicting a slower pace of economic growth over the next several months than the markets were expecting.
• The release of the FOMC meeting minutes didn’t reveal many surprises. The most notable was a minor upward revision of their expectation for this year’s unemployment rate. They also reiterated a prolonged period of high unemployment and slightly raised inflation targets for this year.

Friday

• The Labor Department’s January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a 0.2% increase in the overall reading and a 0.1% decline in the more important core reading.  Both were below forecasts, meaning that inflationary pressures were calmer at the consumer level of the economy last month than many had thought. This can be considered favorable news for the bond market and mortgage rates, however, this morning’s news has failed to influence bond buying.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010 Please E-mail us your opinion of this report

Welcome to the February edition of the 2010 Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter. The primary purpose of this newsletter is to keep you informed of the real estate market in Denver.

This Month’s Newsletter Highlights:

• Denver home prices show an annual increase for the 1st time in 3 years Read More
• Forbes Magazine Lists Denver as one of the “Top Ten Cities Where It’s Smarter to Buy”.  Economists predict home prices for these locales will go up the most over the next five years. Read More
• Back by popular demand, Paul’s Economic Stimulus Plan!  See the Tidbits section below.

Please feel free to contact me anytime with real estate questions you may have. Also, if you know someone who is thinking about buying or selling a home, please call to let me know. Referrals are the core of my business and are always appreciated.

Tidbits

Insight of a True Leader
‘A true leader is a servant of those he/she leads.  If others question your leadership, you should question your service.  If others are questioning your service, you aren’t leading.  Leadership is a skill earned through experience.  Leading others is a right granted by those being lead.  I am prepared to lead or follow.  In the absence of leadership I will step forward and lead.  In the presence of true leadership, I will step forward and follow.  In either case, I will serve my people, my country, and my God.  I will lead from the front.  I will serve from the heart.  Leader is not a name or a title I give myself.  It is what I am.  Are you a leader?’ (Tony Griffin, Friend and Mentor)

‘There’s an (Free) App for that’
View homes for sale, as you walk or drive through any neighborhood, using  these FREE iPhone applications.  The iPhone GPS technology pinpoints your location and displays real-time real estate information and data as you move.  Go to the App Store on your iPhone and search for these great FREE apps!

• Realtor.com – Provides current, up to date list of homes for sale in your neighborhood.  Each property displayed includes photos, property details and pricing. Learn More
• Zillow.com – See the “Zestimate” value, homes for sale, and recently sold home for any neighborhood.  Learn More
• BestHome4Me – Search homes for sale plus learn about neighborhood demographics, population characteristics, and places of interest (Grocery Stores, Restaurants, Bars, Coffee Shops, Libraries, Parks, Golf Courses, Fitness Centers and more).

What you can find on Paul’s Real Estate Blog This Month:

• Why do interest rates change daily? Read More
• 2010 Survival Handbook Read More
• This article published last year is worthy of another look.  Down payment assistance is available to qualified borrows through community programs such as Colorado Home and Finance Authority (CHFA).  These programs are designed to assist homebuyers with low interest loans that allow borrowers to finance a portion or all of the down payment and/or closing costs.   Read More

Colorado Foreclosure Hotline
Are you concerned about missed mortgage payments, delinquent payments or possible foreclosure?  Contact the ColoradoForeclosureHotline.org or call 877-601-HOPE.  There were 39,915 foreclosures filed in Colorado in 2007, four out of five homeowners who met with a Colorado Foreclosure Hotline housing counselor successfully avoided foreclosure.  Take action now!

Paul’s Economic Stimulus Plan

• 10% off coupon to Lowe’s Building Center.   Through a special relationship with the National Association of Realtor’s I am able to provide my very special guests with a 10% off coupon to Lowe’s Building Center.  Simply reply to this email if interested.
• Kids Eat Free in Douglas County Read More
• Kids Eat Free in Denver Read More

Free Offer to First Time Homebuyers Are you a first time homebuyer or do you know someone who is considering buying their first home? Let me help you learn more about the home buying process. Reply to this post and I’ll send you a free copy of Your First Home by Gary Keller, Chairman of Keller Williams Realty International.

Mortgage News

The cost to finance using Federal Housing Administration (FHA) guaranteed loans are planned to increase April 5^th!  The FHA will increase the Up-Front Mortgage Insurance Premium (MIP) from 1.75% up to 2.25%.

FHA to provide early relief to struggling homeowners.  Homeowners with FHA-insured mortgage loans who are experiencing financial hardship are now eligible for assistance before they fall behind on their mortgage payments by permanently reducing the payment.  Read More

Real Estate News

Denver again led metro area in home sales in 2009 though the number of sales declined from 2008 Read More

Metro Denver’s  apartment vacancy rate of 7.7% nearly unchanged from 2008; average rents down from previous year.  Read More

Completed home foreclosures in Colorado in 2009 declined 4.1% compared to 2008 and declined 18.4% from the peak year of 2007.  Fewer foreclosure filings resulted in a foreclosure sale as home owners refinanced, modified loans or executed a short sale.  The states foreclosure counseling program, including Colorado Foreclosure Hotline, have helped some 16,000 households avoid foreclosure since 2006.  Read More

Colorado’s foreclosure filing ranking among all states fell from 5^th to 10^th.  The foreclosure rate, the percentage of homes in some stage of foreclosure, was 2.37 percent in 2009, down slightly from 2008’s rate of 2.41 percent.  Read More

2009 Inventory – Months of Supply

The inventory of single family residential homes for sale has dropped 13.4% from January 2009 and 30.4% from the January peak in 2008.  Upon taking a closer look at the table below you will see that Denver has two distinct real estate markets and one in transition.  Homes priced $250,000 and below, typically the entry point for many first time home buyers, has only 3.1 months of inventory (supply).  This market shows signs of recovery as a result of 1) the First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit, 2) increased affordability and 3) record low interest rates.  Homes priced $500,000 and above have 11.1++ months of inventory.   The typical rule of thumb is that a market is in balance or ‘in transition’ when the supply of homes is 5 or 6 months.  Homes priced between $250,000 and $500,000 fall within this range.  Don’t forget, homes in all price ranges are still selling!

2009 Inventory - Months of Supply

Economic News

Colorado jobless rate jumps to 7.5%  Read More

Many of the nation’s largest retailers with stores in Colorado including Macy’s, Target and more, reported modest improvement in their January sales from a year earlier.  Read More

The Denver area lost 39,700 jobs in 2009 or 3.2 percent of its total employment.  Read More

Colorado new-car registrations down 28% in 2009.  Read More

Other News

DIA air fares drop 16% in Q3 from 2008, down 37% from 2001  Read More

Denver picked as potential site for soccer’s World Cup.  Read More

Denver passes new rules for medical-marijuana sellers.  Read More

Centura Health to build hospital in Castle Rock.  Read More

Joe Nacchio, former Qwest CEO, makes Time’s list of Top 10 ‘Crooked CEOs’.  Read More

Appliance World shutters Denver-area stores.  Read More

Wells Fargo offers text banking to all its customers. Read More

Safeway and King Soopers employees approve 4 year contract.  Read More

Colorado Capitol’s dome named to ‘most endangered places’ list.  Read More

DIA saw 2.1% passenger drop in 2009, but it’s still 2nd-busiest year ever  Read More

Thank you again for your business and referrals.

If you or someone you know is thinking about buying or selling a home any time in the next year, please call to let me know. It would be my pleasure to contact and work with your referral. My commitment to you is to treat them with the utmost care as they work towards buying or selling a home.

When searching Homes For Sale anywhere in the Denver metro area use this link, Interactive Map-Based Home Search. This interactive, map-based home search tool makes looking for homes fun and easy. If you are interested in a specific neighborhood, whether it is your current neighborhood or the one that you hope to move to someday, this site can send you e-mail notifications when new homes come onto the market. Happy home searching!

Looking for the most current, accurate foreclosure data on the market? The Search for Homes page found on the MetroDenverRealty.com web site now has a “Foreclosures” radio button.  (The radio button can be found in the ‘Search For:” section under Search Tools.  Use this link to see an example if you’re having difficulty finding the radio button.)

Would you like to get an up-to-the minute report of homes sold and homes currently available in your neighborhood? Go to www.MetroDenverRealty.com and click on the Market Snapshot link.

Please call with any questions or comments. It would be my pleasure to assist you with all of your real estate needs.

This weeks economic news:

Monday:

• No important economic data scheduled for release

Tuesday

• No important economic data scheduled for release

Wednesday

• December’s Goods and Services Trade Balance revealed a $40.2 billion trade deficit that was much larger than expected.

Thursday

• The Labor Department reported that 440,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was much lower than expected, indicating that the labor market may have been stronger than thought last week. However, since this data covers only a single week, it usually does not heavily influence bond trading or mortgage rates.
• Wednesday’s 10-year Note auction did not go very well, leading to afternoon selling in bonds and this morning’s increase in mortgage pricing.

Friday

• The Commerce Department reported that retail level sales rose 0.5% last month. This matched forecasts for the most part, meaning consumers spent no more than was thought.
• The Commerce Department revised December’s sales 0.2% better than previously thought.
• February’s preliminary reading to the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment revealed a reading of 73.7. This was a decline from January’s reading and lower than forecasts were calling for. This means that consumers are less optimistic about their own financial situations this month than many had thought. That is considered good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning consumer confidence usually translates into weaker levels of consumer spending.
• Thursday’s 30-year Bond sale also was met with a lackluster interest from investors. This was no surprise and neither was the minimal reaction to the results once they were posted Thursday afternoon.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010 Please E-mail us your opinion of this report

This weeks economic news:

Monday:

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Tuesday:

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Wednesday:

• The Institute for Supply Management released their services index indicating a reading of 50.5. This was a little lower than analysts had expected.

Thursday:

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Friday:

• The Labor Department monthly Employment report gave mixed results.
  • The unemployment rate dropped to 9.7% which was well below the 10.0% expected by analysts.
  • 20,000 jobs when lost when new payrolls had been expected to be up 15,000.
  • December’s payroll numbers were revised downward to 150,000 from 85,000 reported in January.

Morgage Commentary 2009

This weeks economic news:

Monday:

• The National Association of Realtors reported that home resales fell a whopping 16.7% last month. Analysts were expecting to see a sizable decline in sales, but this was much larger than thought. The surprising drop indicates that the housing sector still is not stable, which is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates. Though some of the loss is being attributed to the initial expiration of the home buyer tax credit, this raises further concerns about the housing sector and makes a broader economic recovery less likely to be in the near future.

Tuesday:

• The Conference Board released the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), for January, reporting a reading of 55.9 that exceeded forecasts by over two points. This can be considered negative news for bonds because it indicates that consumers may be more willing to make large purchases in the near future. Since consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, any related data is watched closely.

Wednesday

• The Commerce Department reported that December’s New Home Sales fell 7.6% last month. That was a much larger decline than was expected and helps support the theory that the housing market still has some troubles to overcome.

Thursday

• December’s Durable Goods Orders revealed a 0.3% increase in new orders for big-ticket products.  This was short of analysts’ forecasts of a 2.0% increase. However, if more volatile transportation related orders are excluded, such as orders for new aircraft, we saw a larger than expected increase of 0.9%. Therefore, this report basically gives us mixed results, but should be considered slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.
• The Labor Department reported that 470,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week, but was much higher than the 450,000 that were expected. This is good news for bonds.

Friday

• The initial reading of the 4th Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) revealed a 5.7% annual rate of growth during the last quarter of 2009. This was much better than expected and the fastest pace in six years, indicating that the economy is likely growing at a faster pace than many had thought. That creates a negative for bonds because once the economy begins to gain momentum, inflations concerns will rise in the markets.
• The 4th Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) revealed a 0.5% increase in employer costs for wages and benefits.  This was higher than expected.
• The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment for January was revised upward to 74.4.  This index measures consumer confidence, which is thought to indicate consumer willingness to spend.

Morgage Commentary 2009