MetroDenverRealty.com

Welcome to the August edition of the 2010 Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter. The purpose of this newsletter is to keep you informed of Denver’s real estate market.

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Another Personal Real Estate Accomplishment

Once again I’d like to thank all of my clients and friends who have referred business my way in helping me to reach one of my top goals; to be the Top Producing Individual Agent in my office for the month of July.  Without your business and support it would have been impossible for me to have achieved this goal and to have sold nearly $1,500,000 of real estate in July alone!

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All New Parade of Homes

The 2010 Denver Parade of Homes in now underway!  Visit 55 homes throughout the metro area for FREE!  Hours are from 11:00 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. daily.  Go to www.ParadeofHomesDenver.com to plan your tour!

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Interest Rate Drops Once Again!

Thank you to my wife Jenny for assisting me each month in preparing this newsletter.  Each month, during her review,  she asks me the same question, ‘Why do you saying each month that interest rates have dropped to new historical lows’.  Well, the reality is that mortgage rates continue to drop due to elevated unemployment and modest consumer confidence levels.  Here is a real life examples of today’s low rates.  Yesterday, one of my clients purchased a home with a 15 year fixed rate morgage at 3.875%.  If you’d like more information about the benefits of purchasing a home at today’s ‘Historically Low’ rates please call me.

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TIDBITS

Insightful Quotes

“Everyone wants to be appreciated, so if you appreciate someone, don’t keep it a secret.” (Mary Kay Ash, 1915-2001, Founder of Mary Kay Cosmetics)

“I don’t know the key to success, but the key to failure is trying to please everybody.” (Bill Cosby, Comedian, Actor and Author)

“Smile to yourself and then pass it on to someone else!  Repeat Often.” (Tony Griffin, Mentor and Friend)

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My Favorite iPhone App:  AroundMe

This free app allows you to quickly find the closest Gas Station, Restaurant, Bank, etc, AroundMe shows you a complete list of all businesses in the category you have selected along with the distance from where you are.

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My Favorite Real Estate Web Site

www.Houselogic.com
This National Association of Realtors consumer website provides information about your home; everything from upkeep of the property, how to keep tax records, projects under $500 and more.

www.KnowYourOptions.com
Fannie Mae has launched KnowYourOptions.com, a new consumer education Web site that outlines the choices available to homeowners who are struggling with their mortgage payments, and provides guidance on how they can contact and work with their mortgage company to find solutions.

DENVER REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS

Year-over-year Charts

Residential (use the scroll bar on the right side of the chart to view all four graphs)

July 2010 MLS Res Charts

Condo and Townhomes (use the scroll bar on the right side of the chart to view all four graphs)

July 2010 MLS Condo Charts

Real Estate News

Fewer U.S. homeowners have ‘underwater mortgages’  Read More

Denver-area home resales down in July from 2009, but prices up  Read More

New Zoning Code for Denver! The Denver City Council unanimously adopted a comprehensive update to the Zoning Code.  Go to www.newcodedenver.org to learn more.

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Mortgage News

Colorado has nation’s 12th-lowest mortgage closing costs  Read More

Denver, Freddie Mac partner to promote home ownership  Read More

Colorado foreclosure filings down 9.3% from 2009; down 8.6% in Denver  Read More

Federal Housing Administration (FHA) Changes Effective October 4th:
Congress has passed FHA reform that will institute new Mortgage Insurance (MI) rules.  With all FHA loans, the borrower pays Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium as well as the monthly premium that is included in their monthly house payment.  The Up Front MI premium will be reduced from 2.25% to 1% of the purchase price. That’s the good news.  The bad news is that the monthly MI premium will increase to .9% from the current .55%.  The net effect is that the borrows monthly payment will increase $48 on the purchase of a $300,000 home.

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Economic News

U.S. unemployment holds at 9.5%  Read More

Denver-area consumer prices rise 1.7% from 2009 Read More

Colorado region’s manufacturing rebounds in July  Read More

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Other News

Denver Broncos are World’s 14^th Most Valuable Sports Team  Read More

CU-Boulder Team to Study Gulf of Mexico Spill Chemicals  Read More

DIA unveils design for South Terminal expansion   Read More

DIA fares drop 36% over last 10 years  Read More

Denver is 11th best city for job seekers  Read More

11 Colorado schools on Forbes’ 2010 ‘America’s Best Colleges’ list  Read More

FasTracks announces ground breaking for the east rail line to DIA  Read More

Colorado Rockies’ new spring-training home reflects tribal culture  Read More

Xcel proposes coal-power cutbacks in Denver, Boulder, elsewhere  Read More

Five Colorado Cities on Money’s ‘Best Places to Live’ List  Read More

Parties settle issues in Landmark bankruptcy case  Read More

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Thank you again for your business and referrals.

If you or someone you know is thinking about buying or selling a home any time in the next year, please call to let me know. It would be my pleasure to contact and work with your referral. My commitment to you is to treat them with the utmost care as they work towards buying or selling a home.

When searching homes for sale anywhere in the Denver metro area use this link, Interactive Map-Based Home Search. This interactive, map-based home search tool makes looking for homes fun and easy. If you are interested in a specific neighborhood, whether it is your current neighborhood or the one that you hope to move to someday, this site can send you e-mail notifications when new homes come onto the market. Happy home searching!

Would you like to get an up-to-the minute report of homes sold and homes currently available in your neighborhood? Go to www.MetroDenverRealty.com and click on the Market Snapshot link.

Please call with any questions or comments. It would be my pleasure to assist you with all of your real estate needs.

Please feel free to contact me anytime with real estate questions you may have. Also, if you know someone who is thinking about buying or selling a home, please call to let me know. Referrals are the core of my business and are always appreciated.

Welcome to the July edition of the 2010 Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter. The purpose of this newsletter is to keep you informed of Denver’s real estate market.

IT’S OFFICIAL!  I’m now a Certified Residential Specialist

On June 30th, I joined the ranks of the Certified Residential Specialist.    As a CRS Designee I look forward to being the best in the business, someone with proven experience, and skills to make the home buying or selling experience much smoother and satisfying for all of my clients. View my CRS profile using this link.

Real Estate News

Denver-area luxury-home sales jump 62%  Read More

New home sales dive 53% in West, 33% nationwide  Read More

Denver home prices up 4.4% from 2009, Case-Shiller Index shows  Read More

Denver council approves new city zoning code, 13-0  Read More

Parade of Homes lines up sponsors  Read More
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Denver-area job declines lessening  Read More

Colorado unemployment rate stays at 8% in May; 1,100 more working  Read More

Colorado lost 62,600 jobs in 2000s  Read More

U.S. loses 125,000 jobs in June; unemployment falls to 9.5%  Read More

Foreclosure fillings in Colorado urban areas down 17.7% in May from 2009  Read More

Colorado personal income up for 3^rd straight quarter  Read More

Douglas tops nation for higher wages  Read More

Consumer prices edge up in West  Read More

Denver’s population grows 10.2% in 2000’s, to 610,345  Read More

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Other News

Denver rated America’s 8^th-best city for young professionals  Read More

BP fined $5.2M over Colorado operations  Read More

Molson Coors introduces Coors Light in Russia  Read More

Cherry Creek Mall get 5 new stores  Read More

Colorado the leanest state in the nation  Read More

King Tut exhibition opens at Denver Art Museum  Read More

Judge resentences Naccio to 5 years, 10 months in prison  Read More

Building a burrito empire: Chipotle opens its 1,000^th restaurant  Read More

5 Colorado hospitals get top rankings for emergency care  Read More

FBI moves into new building at Denver’s Stapleton  Read More

Fluor-Macquarie consortium picked for $2B RTD FasTracks project  Read More

29 Colorado high schools rated among nation’s best by Newsweek  Read More

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Thank you again for your business and referrals.

If you or someone you know is thinking about buying or selling a home any time in the next year, please call to let me know. It would be my pleasure to contact and work with your referral. My commitment to you is to treat them with the utmost care as they work towards buying or selling a home.

When searching homes for sale anywhere in the Denver metro area use this link, Interactive Map-Based Home Search. This interactive, map-based home search tool makes looking for homes fun and easy. If you are interested in a specific neighborhood, whether it is your current neighborhood or the one that you hope to move to someday, this site can send you e-mail notifications when new homes come onto the market. Happy home searching!

Would you like to get an up-to-the minute report of homes sold and homes currently available in your neighborhood? Go to www.MetroDenverRealty.com and click on the Market Snapshot link.

Please call with any questions or comments. It would be my pleasure to assist you with all of your real estate needs.

Please feel free to contact me anytime with real estate questions you may have. Also, if you know someone who is thinking about buying or selling a home, please call to let me know. Referrals are the core of my business and are always appreciated.

Welcome to the June edition of the 2010 Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter. The purpose of this newsletter is to keep you informed of Denver’s real estate market.

CRS COMING SOON

This newsletter comes to you a few days later than usual. I spent the last week in Las Vegas completing the final three classes that I’ll need to earn my Certified Residential Specialist (CRS) Designation.

The CRS Designation is the highest professional designation awarded to REALTORS® in the residential sales field. Realtors who have earned this credential do so by completing extensive training and by demonstrating significant experience in managing real estate transactions. Less than 4 percent of Realtors working today have earned the CRS designation and they are among the most successful Realtors in real estate.

I look forward to ‘officially’ receiving my Designation and joining the ranks of the CRS elite.

TIDBITS

Insightful Quotes
“Maturity begins when we’re content to feel we’re right about something, without feeling the necessity to prove someone else is wrong.” (Sydney J. Harris, 1917-1986, Syndicated Columnist)

“You can conquer almost any fear if you will make up your mind to do so. For remember, fear doesn’t exist anywhere except in the mind.” (Dale Carnegie, 1888-1955, Author and Speaker)

“The important thing is not being afraid to take a chance. Remember, the greatest failure is to not try. Once you find something you love to do, be the best at doing it.” (Debbi Fields, Founder)

DENVER REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS
Year-over-year Charts

Residential (use the scroll bar on the right side of the chart to view all four graphs)

Condo and Townhomes (use the scroll bar on the right side of the chart to view all four graphs)

May 2010 Real Estate Market Trends

Real Estate News

Denver ‘most improved’ U.S. housing market. Read More

Denver home sales up 20% in May from 2009. Read More

Foreclosure filings down in April from a year earlier. Read More

Expiring tax credits spark homebuying frenzy in Denver area. Read More

Denver home prices up 4.1% from March 2009. Read More

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Economic News

Big retail chains with Colorado stores report May sales. Read More

Coloradans bought half as many new cars last year as a decade ago. Read More

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Other News

Construction on the Hess Road Extension is underway. Read More

Microsoft store opens at Park Meadows mall. Read More

Colorado Lottery launches ‘Mega Millions’ game. Read More

Denver picked for 2014 world lacrosse championship. Read More

Vail, Beaver Creek to host 2015 world ski championships. Read More

Colorado skier visits up slightly from last year. Read More

Denver air fares down 30% in last 10 years. Read More

DIA to get more advanced screening technology via stimulus. Read More

Frontier Airlines spokesanimals win Effie advertising award. Read More

CU-Boulder leaving Big 12 for Pac-10. Read More

New Rockies spring training facility named. Read More

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Thank you again for your business and referrals.

If you or someone you know is thinking about buying or selling a home any time in the next year, please call to let me know. It would be my pleasure to contact and work with your referral. My commitment to you is to treat them with the utmost care as they work towards buying or selling a home.

When searching homes for sale anywhere in the Denver metro area use this link, Interactive Map-Based Home Search. This interactive, map-based home search tool makes looking for homes fun and easy. If you are interested in a specific neighborhood, whether it is your current neighborhood or the one that you hope to move to someday, this site can send you e-mail notifications when new homes come onto the market. Happy home searching!

Would you like to get an up-to-the minute report of homes sold and homes currently available in your neighborhood? Go to www.MetroDenverRealty.com and click on the Market Snapshot link.

Please call with any questions or comments. It would be my pleasure to assist you with all of your real estate needs.

Please feel free to contact me anytime with real estate questions you may have. Also, if you know someone who is thinking about buying or selling a home, please call to let me know. Referrals are the core of my business and are always appreciated.

Welcome to the May edition of the 2010 Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter.

Denver Trivia – Win a $50 Gift Card
Congratulations to Patty Reefe for being the first to answer last months Denver Trivia question and winning a $50 Home Depot gift card.  On selected months, I secretly include a trivia question in my newsletter and award a prize to the first person to respond with the correct answer.  So keep reading! You may find a trivia question and be the next winner!

Thank you for your referrals!
I would like to extend a special thank you to the Holland, Knudsen, Large and Sapkato families for their real estate referrals.  Each and every referral is critical to the success of my business and is VERY much appreciated!  The greatest compliment you can give me is a referral of your friends and family!   Thank you again!

This Month in Real Estate:

Denver’s real estate market continues to show signs of stability and strength which can be attributed to 1) the seasonal increase typically seen each Spring, 2) the home buyer tax credit and 3) continued historically low interest rates.

April 2010 real estate indicators show the following:

• 6,616 homes went under contract in April.  This is the largest number of homes put under contract for purchase in any April since the mid-1980s.
• Average days on the market is 80.  Homes are selling 22% faster than this period in 2009
• The number of homes sold in April increased 22% compared to April, 2009.
• Average sales prices remained level compared to March 2010.

The home buyer tax credit ended on April 30th. Because the tax credit pulls sales forward, home sales will likely retreat sometime after April. That may prove to be temporary as improvement in the labor market and broader economy step up to support demand.

New, Easy to Use Foreclosure Property Search Feature on Paul’s Real Estate Web Site
Looking for the most current, accurate foreclosure data on the market? The Search for Homes page found on my MetroDenverRealty.com web site now has a “Foreclosures” radio button. (The radio button can be found in the ‘Search For:” section under Search Tools. Use this link to see an example if you’re having difficulty finding the radio button.)

Please feel free to contact me anytime with real estate questions you may have. Also, if you know someone who is thinking about buying or selling a home, please call to let me know.

Tidbits

Insightful Quotes

“Forgiveness does not change the past, but it does enlarge the future.”  (Paul Boese, Botanist)

What’s Happening in Denver this month?

• Denver Day of Rock – May 29 Read More
• Downtown Denver Arts Festival – May 28-31  Read More
• Capital Hill People’s Fair – June 5-6 Read More
• Denver Chalk Arts Festival , Larimer Square – June 5 – 6  Read More

DENVER REAL ESTATE MARKET TRENDS
Year-over-year Charts

Residential (scroll down to see all four charts)

Condos (scroll down to see all four charts)

April 2010 Real Estate Market Trends

Real Estate News

Denver area just below average for housing affordability.  Read More

Sales of high-end, $1 million-plus homes in metro Denver dipped in March from the same month of 2009, but such homes sold faster.  Read More

The Denver-area housing market today ranked No. 5 of 20 cities ranked in the closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price index.  Denver-area housing gained 3.6%, the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year increase.  Read More

Colorado foreclosure filings up 9% in Q1  Read More

Denver ranks 10th among ‘destination cities’ for movers  Read More

Economic News

Denver’s March unemployment at 8.5%  Read More

Colorado jobless rate hits 7.9%  Read More

Five Colorado cities are in the top 30 of the nation’s best places for business and careers, with Denver and Fort Collins both in the top 10.  Read More

Qwest to be sold to CenturyTel  Read More

President Obama signs bill authorizing $800M for Aurora VA hospital  Read More

RTD puts off tax vote on FasTracks rail project  Read More

Other News

CDOT unveils summer work schedule  Read More

Frontier Airlines name will go on Milwaukee convention center Read More

Frontier Airlines pays tribute to Midwest’s home with badger on jet.    Read More

United Launch Alliance to stay in Centennial at expanded HQ campus  Read More

Microsoft store coming to Denver  Read More

2010 Mile High Music Festival to feature Dave Matthews, Jack Johnson  Read More

Composting program takes off at DIA  Read More

Target installs recycling stations in U.S. stores  Read More

Anheuser-Busch replacing Coors as NFL’s beer sponsor  Read More

Denver Water mourns the loss of chief Chips Barry.  Read More

Thank you again for your business and referrals.

If you or someone you know is thinking about buying or selling a home any time in the next year, please call to let me know. It would be my pleasure to contact and work with your referral. My commitment to you is to treat them with the utmost care as they work towards buying or selling a home.

When searching homes for sale anywhere in the Denver metro area use this link, Interactive Map-Based Home Search. This interactive, map-based home search tool makes looking for homes fun and easy. If you are interested in a specific neighborhood, whether it is your current neighborhood or the one that you hope to move to someday, this site can send you e-mail notifications when new homes come onto the market. Happy home searching!

Would you like to get an up-to-the minute report of homes sold and homes currently available in your neighborhood? Go to www.MetroDenverRealty.com and click on the Market Snapshot link.

Please call with any questions or comments. It would be my pleasure to assist you with all of your real estate needs.

Welcome to the April edition of the 2010 Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter.
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Relocating? Looking for a vacation home? Contact me! I can help!
When relocating to pursue new opportunities or looking for a vacation home outside the Denver Metro area or anywhere else in the country, I can assist you.  I can find a Realtor through my network of Realtor associates and will pre-qualify Realtor’s to assure that you work with a seasoned professional who’s capable of meeting your specific needs.

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This Month’s Newsletter Highlights:

• This weekend is National Open House Weekend promoted by the National Association of Realtor’s (NAR). Come visit me at my open house in Bonnie Brae this Sunday, between 1:00 and 4:00.  The address is 1440 S. Elizabeth Street. Map Link
• Track year over year home values for your neighborhood using Zillow.com.  Analyze 17 different value metrics in any Denver neighborhood.    Read More
• The real estate market continues to show signs of stability in March.  All indicators point in a positive direction compared to a year ago.
  • Inventories and days on market are down!
  • Homes under contract, sold and average sold price have all increased!

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  New Additions to Paul’s Real Estate Blog

• Learn how to avoid foreclosure Read More
• Learn about the risks of radon Gas Read More
• Protect you family from lead in your home  Read More
• Sign up for Public Safety Alerts to notify you of emergencies in your area Read More Read more…

Welcome to the March edition of the 2010 Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter.

Nearly two years ago I began blogging and writing my monthly Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter with the intent of keeping you informed of current events in Denver and more importantly, keeping you up to date on the condition of our local real estate market. Since that time I’ve worked hard to expand the real estate, home buyer and home seller content to provide you with a single real estate resource.

I would like to personally ask for your help in growing my real estate business by expanding the newsletter circulation. Please forward this email to your network of friends, family and colleagues asking them to read my newsletter.  If they like the information and would like to be added to my distribution list, have them email me at psobania@gmail.com.*

Thank you for your continued support of this publication and my real estate business.

* Email addresses will not be sold or used for any other purpose except receiving the monthly Denver Real Estate Market Newsletter.

Tidbits

Insightful Quotes
“If you think you can do a thing or think you can’t do a thing, you’re right.” ( Henry Ford)

“It’s not what you do once in a while; it’s what you do day in and day out that makes the difference.” (Jenny Craig, Diet Specialist)

“You don’t get to choose how you’re going to die. Or when. You can only decide how you’re going to live. Now.” (Joan Baez Singer, Songwriter and Activist)

New This Month on Paul’s Real Estate Blog:

• Client Testimonials: One of the best ways to get an idea of what your experience may be like working with a Realtor is to find out what others have had to say. My clients are talking and have some nice things to say! Use this link!
• Buyer Guides: A special thanks to Stacy King with Colorado Mortgage Alliance for providing seven buyer guides designed to walk you through the home buying process.  Each buyer guide is specifically written for the new construction buyer, custom home buyer, real estate investor, or repeat home buyer.  Select from the Buyer’s Resources tab then Buyer Guides on my Blog.
  
• Year- over-year Real Estate Charts: Most often the real estate statistics published are for a small window of time, i.e. monthly. While this is important data to analyze, monthly data can be skewed by unusual events such as blizzards, home buyer tax credits, etc. For the very first time I’m including six year-over-year charts that demonstrate longer term trends in real estate. These are a great tool and I’m very excited to be providing these to you each month!

Scroll down to see all six charts.

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Real Estate News

Case Schiller reported that Denver-area home prices rose 1.2% between December 2009 and the same month of 2008.  Article 1 Article 2

Colorado 12th in January foreclosures down from 11^th in January 2009.  Read More

Denver’s delinquent commercial backed securities below national average.  Read More

Denver-area rental home vacancy rate at 5.5% in fourth quarter 2009, a 3-year high.  Read More

February 2010 Real Estate Summary

• Decrease in the Number of Closed Sales (down 4.7% for the month)
• Average Days on Market reduced 14% to 92 days
• Number of Active Listings reduced by 7.7% to 14,058
• Absorption Rate dropped to 6.8 months (down 9.1%)
• Average Sold Price remains strong (up 13.8% from $236,920 to $269,688) compared to February, 2009.

February 2010 Real Estate Market Trends

2009 Colorado Real Estate Market Snapshot

Homes Sold by Colorado REALTORS® in 2009

• 59,156 Single Family Units were sold in 2009, a decrease of 12% compared to 2008.
• 13,258 Condos/Townhomes in 2009 were sold, a decrease of 13% compared to 2008.
• The median price for single family homes was $214,584 for 2009, a 5% decrease in 2008.
• The median price for condos/townhomes was $150,333 for 2009, an 18% decrease from 2008.
  
  

Who were the Buyers?

• Thirty-nine percent of recent home buyers were first-time buyers.
• The typical first-time home buyer was 29 years old, while the typical repeat buyer was 47 years old.
• The median income was $58,200 among first-time buyers and $83,900 among repeat buyers.
• Twenty-one percent of recent home buyers were single females, and 9 percent were single males.

Read more

Mortgage News

FHA halts 90-day “flip rule” for one year. Read article

Colorado mortgage delinquency rate among the lowest in the nation. Read More

Fannie Mae announced new incentives for buyers, up to 3.5% of the sales price for closing costs, to help clear its inventory of homes listed for sale. Read article

New short sale guidelines announced by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA). Borrowers who were in default of their mortgage at the time of a short sale are not eligible for a new FHA-insured mortgage for three years from the date of the pre-foreclosure sale.

Twenty percent of Colorado mortgages ‘upside-down’. Read More

Economic News

Denver ranks No. 9 out of 50 as the easiest place to find a job for job seekers.  Read More

Denver-area consumer prices down 0.7% in 2009. Read more

Big retail chains with Colorado stores report reported that February sales were some of the strongest monthly sales gains in more than a year. Read More

Fed’s Beige Book reported ‘Modest growth’ during January and February in the Colorado region.   Read More

Other News

Construction scheduled to begin on Sante Fe and C470 Fly Over.  Read More

Colorado to benefit from Raytheon Co. award of a major Air Force contract to upgrade the Global Positioning System (GPS).   Read More

Denver ranks 15th in U.S. for 2009 traffic congestion Read More

42.1% of all Denver’s households with a television viewed this year’s Super Bowl.  Read More

Republic Airways to shut down Lynx air service.  Read More

Mega Millions multistate lottery game coming to Colorado  Read More

Colorado ranks 9th in Internet usage. Read More

For the first time since 1998, Ford beat General Motors in overall monthly sales.  Read More

Thank you again for your business and referrals.

If you or someone you know is thinking about buying or selling a home any time in the next year, please call to let me know. It would be my pleasure to contact and work with your referral. My commitment to you is to treat them with the utmost care as they work towards buying or selling a home.

When searching homes for sale anywhere in the Denver metro area use this link, Interactive Map-Based Home Search. This interactive, map-based home search tool makes looking for homes fun and easy. If you are interested in a specific neighborhood, whether it is your current neighborhood or the one that you hope to move to someday, this site can send you e-mail notifications when new homes come onto the market. Happy home searching!

Looking for the most current, accurate foreclosure data on the market? The Search for Homes page found on the MetroDenverRealty.com web site now has a “Foreclosures” radio button. (The radio button can be found in the ‘Search For:” section under Search Tools. Use this link to see an example if you’re having difficulty finding the radio button.)

Would you like to get an up-to-the minute report of homes sold and homes currently available in your neighborhood? Go to www.MetroDenverRealty.com and click on the Market Snapshot link.

Please call with any questions or comments. It would be my pleasure to assist you with all of your real estate needs.

This weeks economic news:

Monday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Tuesday

• Demand for the 10-year Note auction was much better than expected, though the rates that were bid for were higher than thought also. Overall, the sale can be considered pretty good, especially with the lackluster interest in recent auctions.

Thursday

• January’s Goods and Services Trade Balance reported a $37.3 billion trade deficit in January. This was much lower than expected however, the data is not important enough to directly affect bonds or mortgage rates.
• The Labor Department reported that 462,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a decline from the previous week, but slightly higher than the 460,000 that was forecasted.

Friday

• February’s Retail Sales data from the Commerce Department showed a 0.3% increase in sales when a small decline was expected. Even if more volatile auto sales are excluded, sales exceeded forecasts by a wide margin. This led to the negative open in bonds and this morning’s increase in mortgage rates because the data indicates consumers were spending more than thought. That raises expectations of economic growth that usually makes bonds and long-term securities less appealing to investors.
• The University of Michigan who said their Index of Consumer Sentiment stood at 72.5 this month. This was lower than forecasts and means surveyed consumers were less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is the good news of the morning because waning confidence usually means consumers are less likely to make a large purchase in the near future.

©Mortgage Commentary 2010 Please E-mail us your opinion of this report

Weekly Economic Update – March 15, 2010

This weeks economic news:

Monday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Tuesday

• The Commerce Department reported that February’s Housing Starts fell 5.9% last month, though analysts were expecting a slightly larger drop.
• The FOMC meeting adjourned with an announcement of no change to key short-term interest rates.  The Fed left the language in the recent statements that indicate that rates will remain near current levels for some time. This is good news for the bond market and mortgage rates as it means that the Fed is still concerned about an economic recovery.
  

Wednesday

• The Labor Department reported a 0.6% decline in February’s Producer Price Index (PPI). This was much weaker than expected, but the core data reading rose 0.1%, matching forecasts. This means that prices at the producer level of the economy fell more than thought, but if food and energy prices are excluded there was no surprise. That can be considered neutral to good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it indicates inflation did not rise more than predicted last month—at least not at the producer level of the economy.

Thursday:

• The Labor Department reported that February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI), the important measurement of inflation at the consumer level of the economy, was unchanged from January. This was slightly weaker than thought.  The Core Data reading, excluding the more volatile food and energy prices,  increased 0.1% which matched forecasts.
• The Labor Department reported that 457,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little higher than what was expected.
• The Conference Board posted its Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) for February revealing a 0.1% increase, meaning economic activity should expand slightly over the next several months. This is index is considered to be moderately important to the markets and mortgage rates, so its influence on rates is fairly minimal also.

Friday

©Mortgage Commentary 2010

This weeks economic news:

Monday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Tuesday

• No relevant economic data scheduled for release.

Wednesday

• The Fed Beige Book report to be released at 2:00 PM ET.  It details economic activity throughout the country by region. The Fed relies heavily on this data during their FOMC meetings, so look for a potential reaction during afternoon trading. It probably will not cause a major sell off in the stock or bond markets, but could cause enough movement in bond prices to possibly improve or worsen mortgage rates slightly if it reveals any significant surprises.

Thursday

• The revised 4th quarter Productivity Index showed an upward revision to an annual rate of 6.7%. This was higher than the preliminary reading of last month and better than forecasts. That means that employees were more productive in quarter than thought, which is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. This is because the economy can grow easier without inflation concerns when productivity is high.
• January’s Factory Orders revealed a 1.7% increase in new orders for durable and non-durable goods. This was close to forecasts, but December’s orders were revised higher by 0.5%.
• The Labor Department reported that last week’s unemployment figure of 469,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a sizable drop from the previous week, but nearly matched forecasts. It also has not affected today’s mortgage pricing.

Friday

• The Labor Department reported that the U.S. unemployment rate remained at 9.7% last month when forecasts had called for a 0.1% increase. The number of jobs lost in the month came in at 36,000 when analysts were expecting a loss of 65,000 jobs. Both of these readings were negative for bonds and mortgage rates and positive for the stock markets since it paints less of a grim picture in the labor market as thought.
• Average hourly earnings reading that rose 0.1%. It was expected to show an increase of 0.2%, meaning income costs did not rise as much as thought. This is an indicator of wage inflation, so the lower the increase, the better for bonds.

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This weeks economic news:

Monday:

• No important economic data scheduled for release

Tuesday

• The Conference Board reported February’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of 46.0 which was well below forecasts of a 55.0 reading. This means that consumers were far less optimistic about their own financial situations than many had thought. This is very good news for the bond market and mortgage rates because waning levels of confidence usually translates into lower levels of consumer spending.

Wednesday

• January’s New Home Sales report a 11.2% drop in sales of newly constructed homes. That indicates that the housing sector is not as stable as some wanted to believe and can be good news for the bond market. However, this data covered only approximately 15% of all home sales in the U.S. Friday’s Existing Home Sales report tracks the other 85% of sales.
• Chairman Bernanke is in the process of delivering the Fed’s semi-annual testimony on the status of the economy to the House Financial Services Committee. During his prepared statement he indicated concern about the employment sector and the unemployment rate that is expected to remain high for quite some time. He also said that he expects inflation to remain under control. Both were good news for the bond market and helped move bonds into positive ground.

Thursday

• January’s Durable Goods Orders report showed a surprising 3.0% increase in new orders for big-ticket items. This was much larger than the 1.4% increase that was expected, however, an upward revision of 0.9% to December’s orders made the month-to-month change less drastic. Also, a reading within the report that tracks new orders for products not attributed to transportation related items actually fell 0.6% when it was expected to rise. This means that overall new orders rose more than expected, but when more volatile transportation related orders are excluded, new orders fell short of forecasts. We can consider these results neutral or slightly favorable to bonds.
• The Labor Department gave us last week’s unemployment figures, announcing that 496,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was much higher than expected and just a bit shy of the important benchmark of 500,000. It also means that new claims rose 12% over the past two weeks, raising concerns that the employment crisis may be worsening before it gets much better. This data usually has little impact on the markets, but the back-to-back spikes have influenced bonds and mortgage rates favorably this morning.
• Also worth noting are the second day of testimony from Fed Chairman Bernanke and the 7-year Treasury Note auction. Mr. Bernanke is expected to repeat yesterday’s speech to the Senate Banking committee today, so it will likely have little influence on trading and mortgage rates unless the Q & A portion of the proceeding reveals any surprises. Yesterday’s 5-year Note auction did not go very well, so there is little expectation that today’s 7-year sale will go much better.

Friday

• The 4^th quarter GDP revision came in a little higher or stronger than last month’s previous estimate of 5.7%. Today’s release showed a 5.9% rate of growth, meaning economic activity was stronger than many had thought. This headline number is bad news for bonds and mortgage rates because a strengthening economy raises inflation concerns and make bonds less appealing to investors.
• The University of Michigan updated their Index of Consumer Sentiment for February announced a reading of 73.6 that was close to forecasts. It is a slight decline from the previous estimate.
• January’s Existing Home Sales data from the National Association of Realtors reported a 7.2% decline in home resales last month when a small increase was expected. This dropped sales to their lowest level since last summer, indicating that the housing sector still has some hurdles to tackle. This can be considered favorable news for bonds, but the data usually does not heavily influence trading or mortgage rates.

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